- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: SNY | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Monday, April 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 17-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 14-13 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 2-0, 1.69 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 2-2, 2.67 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -110 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -110 | -145 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+19.10 Units / 191% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 76% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 79% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 20-8 against the Run Line (+10.6 Units / 26.34% ROI).
- 17-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 20.38% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -10.59% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 2.75% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 14-13 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 5.14% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 4.42% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -8.14% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has located his fastball away 67% of the time (43/64) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 84% (27/32) of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 19 of 759 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (493/699) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (40/48) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strike rate of 70% (163/233) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (54/116) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (23/43) against Luis Severino this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 87th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 22-19 (.537) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are 38-20 (.655) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are just 3-82 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are 164-2 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 17-29 (.370) after a road loss since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Mets are just 8-43 (.157) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .847 (202 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Cubs hitters are slugging .489 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .358 (202 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Cubs are batting .270 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 38 strikeouts in 248 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 826 strikeouts in 4,001 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have put 45% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mets are batting .271 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (131.2 IP) on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (4,741 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The longest HR allowed by the Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 4th longest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 58 of 455 batters (13%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets pitchers have walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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