- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: Roku
The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 23-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 22-18 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 3-2, 2.73 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Griffin Canning 5-1, 2.53 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -105 | +110 |
| Mets | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -115 | -130 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+23.90 Units / 266% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+9.95 Units / 111% ROI)
- Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+13.30 Units / 148% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+13.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 36 games (+17.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games (+15.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 21-19 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 5.81% ROI).
- 23-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 7.89% ROI
- 24-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 20.65% ROI
- 14-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -28.73% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 22-18 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 12.92% ROI).
- 25-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 7.26% ROI
- 16-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -21.74% ROI
- 23-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 11.86% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Griffin Canning (NYM) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has allowed a slugging percentage of just .218 (12 Total Bases / 55 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .375 — 97th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has allowed a slugging percentage of just .218 (12 Total Bases / 55 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 96th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .276 (24-for-87) against Matthew Boyd’s non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .210 — eighth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Griffin Canning has a first-pitch in-zone of just 2% (19/891) since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — fourth Percentile.
Griffin Canning allowed a slugging percentage of .561 (147 Total Bases / 262 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — first Percentile.
Griffin Canning has a in-zone of just 2% (28/1,607) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents batted .204 (68-for-334) against Griffin Canning with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — sixth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Cubs are 12-5 (.706) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Cubs are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Cubs are 13-8 (.619) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 11-3 (.786) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 37-28 (.569) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Cubs (12th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 8-72 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .824 (847 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Cubs hitters are slugging .487 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .381.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .838 (375 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have struck out in just 9% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .753 (873 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (873 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mets pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 121 of 1,445 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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