- The Cubs are -110 favorites vs the Mets
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: SNY | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-110) on Thursday, May 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 19-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 16-14 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 0-1, 4.31 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser 0-3, 8.37 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 8 +100 | -110 |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -120 | -110 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 away games (+17.10 Units / 142% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+12.10 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 76% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 21-10 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI).
- 19-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 21.93% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -19.97% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 11.34% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 16-14 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 9.39% ROI).
- 15-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.45% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -11.63% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 2.45% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Madrigal (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 96.0 MPH (64 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 89.0 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 75% (30/40) against Ben Brown on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Ben Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 96.0 MPH this season (64 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 70% (26/37) against Ben Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 37% of Adrian Houser’s breaking pitches (388/1,041) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (1,577/2,283) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 70% of the time (684/971) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has walked 7 of 45 batters (16%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 15-27 (.357) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are 38-20 (.655) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 165-2 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 7-134 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are just 8-43 (.157) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Mets are just 12-70 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .816 (224 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .354 (224 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Cubs hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .270 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Mets hitters have just 45 strikeouts in 272 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have put 44% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .257 (7,124 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the past seven days (7 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 34 of 270 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 1,682 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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