- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Padres TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The Chicago Cubs (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Cubs are 12-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 13-5 ATS.
Cubs vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 1-1, 1.59 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 2-1, 1.59 ERA
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +100 |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 -115 | -120 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+16.90 Units / 241% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.35 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+22.00 Units / 367% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+14.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 83 away games (+7.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 83 away games (+4.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 168 games (+19.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 168 games (+8.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 11-9 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 9.51% ROI).
- 12-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 17.53% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 30.79% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -37.72% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 13-5 against the Run Line (+8.5 Units / 37.2% ROI).
- 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.3 Units / 41.12% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -9.14% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Justin Turner (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Matthew Boyd (CLE) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/15) against Matthew Boyd when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Matthew Boyd this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Matthew Boyd this season — 3rd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/15) against Matthew Boyd when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .062 (2-for-32) against Nick Pivetta this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta allowed a slugging percentage of .766 (167 Total Bases / 218 ABs) in non-two strike counts in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .561 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .215 (65 PA’s) this season — 4th best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .294 — 93rd Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 54% of the time (38/70) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are 35-11 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .640.
The Cubs are just 148-22 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Cubs are just 76-14 (.844) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 11-1 (.917) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .606.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 76-8 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Padres are 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Cubs (12th best runs scored) today.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .851 (510 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Cubs have scored 54 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
Cubs hitters are slugging .502 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .365.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .318 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 1,820 strikeouts in 9,407 PA’s (19%) against RHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .275 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have just 1,197 strikeouts in 6,775 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 145 of 1,614 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 18 of 177 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 80 double plays in 1,126 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.59 (160.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.24 (109.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.48.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
More MLB Reading:
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