- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Padres TV Channel: MARQ | MLBN | PDTV
The Chicago Cubs (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Monday, April 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Cubs are 6-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 6-6 ATS.
Cubs vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 1-0, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 0-1, 2.30 ERA
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 +100 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -120 | -135 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+18.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+18.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 152 games (+16.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 6-3 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 16.73% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 29.84% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 28.28% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -35.35% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 6-6 against the Run Line (+1.62 Units / 11.83% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.81 Units / -19.05% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.43 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 3.75% ROI
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bellinger | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Suzuki | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Amaya | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Hoerner | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Darvish | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Assad | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
| Darvish | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 45% (174/387) of the time in the 2023 season — lowest among in NL; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Javier Assad threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (148/318) of the time in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (26/135) against Javier Assad on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among in NL; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Hitters swung at 35% of Javier Assad’s non-fastballs (136/387) in the 2023 season — lowest among in NL; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (6/40) against Yu Darvish this season — 2nd lowest among in NL; League Avg: 29% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (6/40) against Yu Darvish this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
Yu Darvish has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to August 14th, 2023 — Steven Matz has the longest active streak at 9.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (26/44) when behind in the count this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Cubs are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Cubs are just 11-23 (.324) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Cubs are 52-29 (.642) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .591.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 3-15 (.167) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Padres are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Padres are just 15-30 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .444 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,791 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Cubs hitters are slugging .538 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters slugged .464 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .806 (1,785 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Padres are batting .269 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Cubs pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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