- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Pirates TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 18-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-19 ATS.
Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 1-0, 0.97 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-2, 2.39 ERA
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -102 | +110 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -118 | -135 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+20.80 Units / 208% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+16.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+11.70 Units / 195% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 16-15 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 4.26% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 9.44% ROI
- 18-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 18.74% ROI
- 11-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -26.11% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-19 against the Run Line (-10 Units / -25.13% ROI).
- 12-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -18.68% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -13.24% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 5.26% ROI
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 21% (91/437) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Colin Rea had a strikeout rate of just 17% (50/285) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea walked 12 of 270 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 37% (97/260) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 17th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .218 (142 PA’s) this season — tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .301 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has not walked any of the 54 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .185 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 96th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .218 (142 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 45-12 (.789) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Cubs are 37-12 (.755) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Cubs are 9-6 (.600) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 7-53 (.117) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 11-37 (.229) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .500 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .876 (299 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .370 (299 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 16% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .107 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .512 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 25% of it’s PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
More MLB Reading:
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