- The Pirates are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Cubs / Pirates TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Chicago Cubs (+115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 22-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 18-20 ATS.
Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 3-0, 1.66 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 2-3, 2.66 ERA
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -120 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 +100 | -135 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+17.95 Units / 179% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+16.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 18 games at home (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 23-15 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 9.34% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 15.57% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -19.88% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 10.68% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-20 against the Run Line (-4.09 Units / -8.18% ROI).
- 17-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -13.03% ROI
- 15-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -18.56% ROI
- 21-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.98 Units / 11.98% ROI
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Jared Jones (PIT) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .368 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .656 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (48/283) against Javier Assad this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .080 (2-for-25) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 97th Percentile.
Javier Assad has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 45% (50/111) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (122/330) against Jared Jones this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (122/330) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 72% (419/583) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 72% (419/583) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 38-39 (.494) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 126-66 (.656) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Pirates are just 27-41 (.397) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Pirates are just 14-20 (.412) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 148-178 (.454) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .790 (1,988 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Cubs hitters are slugging .456 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Cubs are batting .272 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Cubs are batting .296 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .603 (1,015 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .302 (4,241 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 17 double plays in 293 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,295 of 13,918 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates pitchers have walked 8 of 215 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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