- The Cubs are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Cubs / Pirates TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 23-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 18-21 ATS.
Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 0-0, 0.97 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | O 6.5 +105 | -110 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | U 6.5 -125 | -110 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+19.00 Units / 238% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+12.30 Units / 88% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+11.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.80 Units / 120% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 21 games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 24-15 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 10.8% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 17.57% ROI
- 17-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -17.05% ROI
- 22-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 7.84% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-21 against the Run Line (-5.09 Units / -9.98% ROI).
- 17-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -15.42% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -15.77% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.88 Units / 9.09% ROI
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (554/1,263) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (336/751) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (92/317) against Justin Steele when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Justin Steele has walked 5 of 173 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 16-29 (.356) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cubs are just 38-39 (.494) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 148-178 (.454) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 24-24 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Pirates are just 69-16 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Pirates are just 27-41 (.397) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,993 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .860 (391 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .827 (276 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Cubs hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .307 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .600 (1,053 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .371 against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Games involving the Pirates went UNDER in 83% of their games (58.4% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Cubs pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 18 double plays in 304 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 11 of 219 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.70 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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