- The Cubs are -105 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Reds TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Friday, June 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 31-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 37-26 ATS.
Cubs vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 0-2, 4.14 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 5-2, 3.16 ERA
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -120 | +100 |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -120 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 away games (+16.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+13.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 32 games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 49 games (+14.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+12.10 Units / 242% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 30 away games (+2.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+11.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 30-33 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -12.34% ROI).
- 31-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -1.09% ROI
- 30-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -6.1% ROI
- 31-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -2.61% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 37-26 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 10.83% ROI).
- 30-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -4.41% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -5.16% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -4.56% ROI
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (392/875) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (987/2,220) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (651/875) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (214/676) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .377 (305 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (99/236) with two-strikes this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .617 (58 Total Bases / 94 ABs) on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 16-32 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Cubs are 27-24 (.529) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Cubs are just 42-42 (.500) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Cubs are just 5-167 (.029) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 60-43 (.583) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 50-52 (.490) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Reds are just 47-19 (.712) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .350 (968 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Cubs are batting just .201 with two outs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Cubs hitters have drawn 608 walks in 6,307 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 129 double plays in 1,647 opportunities (8%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .134 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Reds are batting just .168 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Reds hitters are slugging just .153 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Reds hitters have chased 28% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 32 double plays in 469 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 26 of 237 batters (11%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,413 of 14,885 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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