- Cubs / Royals TV Channel: MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-160) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 8:05pm EST in Surprise, AZ.
This season, the Cubs are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 4-3 ATS.
Cubs vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +135 |
| Royals | -160 |
Cubs vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Matt Mervis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Miguel Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Cubs are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.73 Units / 6% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.93 Units / -8.23% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -14.33% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.57 Units / 5.68% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Royals are 4-3 against the Run Line (+1.36 Units / 16.55% ROI).
- 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 57.73% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -44.67% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 34.59% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Caleb Kilian has limited playing time.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer had an ERA of 7.49 (51.2 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.27 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .372 (32-for-86) against Brady Singer’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 0 Percentile.
Brady Singer had an ERA of 7.18 (62.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — third Percentile.
Hitters chased just 64 of Brady Singer’s 511 fastballs out of the zone (chase rate of 12%) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Cubs were just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals were just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 17-12 (.586) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Cubs batted .167 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Cubs hitters slugged .456 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .337 (3,050 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters had an OPS of just .649 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
- Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out
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