- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+185) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-3 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 1-0, 1.80 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 0-0, 40.54 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 +100 | O 9 -110 | +185 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 9 -110 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Strider has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 6-2 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 37.62% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.4% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 16.67% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -25.15% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-3 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 7.08% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 45.38% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -50.75% ROI
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Walker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Suarez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Gurriel Jr. | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Moreno | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Peterson | 0.5 +1900 | 0.5 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pfaadt | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Fried | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 93% (14/15) of opposing batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has located his fastball inside 61% of the time (31/51) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (41/139) against Brandon Pfaadt since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a slugging percentage of .643 (191 Total Bases / 297 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .503 — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .445 (204 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .724 — 98th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (163 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
26 of Max Fried’s 106 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .495 (389 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .750 — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 114-26 (.814) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Diamondbacks are just 75-8 (.904) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-22 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 138-14 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 31-46 (.403) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Braves are 47-41 (.534) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves were 30-46 (.395) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .705 (170 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .382 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 114 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .347 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 21 of 298 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 48 opportunities (21%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .120 against Braves pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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