- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | MLBN | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-4 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 0-1, 13.51 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 0-0, 3.60 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 +100 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -120 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 64.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+5.95 Units / 149% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Spencer Strider has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 7-2 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 42.48% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -13.33% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 24.64% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -34.21% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -11.83% ROI).
- 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 13.21% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 52.32% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -57.96% ROI
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Acuna | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Harris | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Arcia | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Carroll | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sale | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Nelson | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 6.80 (46.1 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.27 — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.7 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (95 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 31% (98 SO in 314 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 45 of Ryne Nelson’s 186 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 24%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of 43% (84/195) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (165/347) against Chris Sale with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Sale has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 88% (15/17) of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 44% (90/206) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 122-23 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 138-14 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks were 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 75-8 (.904) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Braves are 32-46 (.410) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Braves are 47-41 (.534) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .359 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 22 strikeouts in 153 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of 1.004 (198 PA’s) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .610 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters are slugging .707 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Braves hitters are slugging .473 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 23 of 340 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 58 opportunities (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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