Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Feb 28

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Cleveland Guardians' Myles Straw attempts to run to first after grounding out to Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Kenny Rosenberg who threw to first baseman Mike Moustakas during the first inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Anaheim, Calif.
(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 28, 2024, 11:29 AM
  • Diamondbacks / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MLBN

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Wednesday, February 28, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear, AZ.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 2-2 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Diamondbacks+110
Guardians -130

Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 away games (+6.00 Units / 200% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 away games (+4.15 Units / 208% ROI)
  • Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Will Brennan has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.90 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 76 games at home (+22.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Diamondbacks are 1-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -45% ROI).

  • 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -53.51% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.68% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -5.68% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Guardians are 2-2 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 3.45% ROI
  • 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 39.56% ROI
  • 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -52.94% ROI

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (32/56) against Brandon Pfaadt on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (122 Total Bases / 191 ABs) on fastballs in the 2023 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .455 — fourth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 30% (40/135) against Brandon Pfaadt in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (97/298) against Brandon Pfaadt in the 2023 season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joey Cantillo is making his MLB debut today.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Diamondbacks are just 55-36 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Diamondbacks are just 132-13 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.

The Diamondbacks were 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.

The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.

The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .512 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.

Diamondbacks hitters struck out just 1,247 times in 6,124 PA’s (20%) in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .394 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Diamondbacks hitters missed on just 23% of swings in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 434 times in the 2023 season — 3rd most in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,706 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (4,085 batted balls) in the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,042 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers won only 19% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.

Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
  • Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • Corbin Martin (Arizona Diamondbacks): Lat, Out
  • Chris Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
  • Kevin Ginkel (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, Out
  • Scott McGough (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
  • Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.