- The Diamondbacks are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-0 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 2-1, 7.21 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-1, 3.86 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -118 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -102 | +135 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 106 games (+32.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 105 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 47 away games (+16.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 away games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 away games (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+27.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Tim Tawa (ARI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pavin Smith (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly walked 25 of 207 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strikeout rate of just 19% (7 SO in 37 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .134 (11 Total Bases / 82 ABs) on changeups since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .377 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Connor Gillispie in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has a strike rate of 72% (34/47) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has allowed an OBP of just .172 (29 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 97th Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has struck out just 10% (3/31) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are 74-17 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Diamondbacks are just 155-12 (.928) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 1-7 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .028.
The Diamondbacks were 13-51 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 44-16 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 28 strikeouts in 202 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .279 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .349 (3,462 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins are just 6-18 (-56.0% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH in the 2024 season (4,288 balls in play) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have walked 22 of 137 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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