- The Mets are -170 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Mets TV Channel: DBTV | SNY | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-170) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 16-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 18-13 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 1-4, 5.52 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 3-1, 1.26 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +140 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -170 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+14.40 Units / 206% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+15.40 Units / 76% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+14.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.15 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 14-16 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -6.28% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -2.85% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 12.04% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -20.63% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 18-13 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 15.13% ROI).
- 21-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.6 Units / 16.08% ROI
- 11-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -29.39% ROI
- 19-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 20% ROI
Mets vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has walked 18% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Zac Gallen allowed a batting average of just .164 vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 91st Percentile and .303 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has walked 18% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 59% (342/575) this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (54 Total Bases / 324 ABs) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 52% (231/444) against Kodai Senga on non-fastballs in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Kodai Senga’s pitches (461/863) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 59% — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 4-11 (.267) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Diamondbacks are 147-35 (.803) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Diamondbacks are 3-11 (.214) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Diamondbacks are 14-2 (.875) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are 8-67 (.107) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mets are 8-1 (.889) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 14% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.80 runs per game (345/192) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.91 runs per game (366/192) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
The Diamondbacks are batting .276 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .259 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 87% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 68% since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets hitters had an OPS of .769 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.63 (1443.1 IP) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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