- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Diamondbacks vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Nationals TV Channel: DBTV | MAS2
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Friday, April 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 1-5 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 0-1, 4.50 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 0-0, 3.86 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -120 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 +100 | +120 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+13.80 Units / 197% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+12.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+14.80 Units / 148% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.25 Units / 88% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 106 games (+32.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 105 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 47 away games (+16.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 away games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 away games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 4-3 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 12.43% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 10.3% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 24.5% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -31.85% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 1-5 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -70.44% ROI).
- 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -63.93% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -34.85% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 28.79% ROI
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Pavin Smith (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Pavin Smith (ARI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has located his fastballs down 56% of the time (20/36) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 56% (14/25) against Brandon Pfaadt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has thrown low pitches 72% of the time (33/46) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has walked 13 of 291 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (7/15) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (208/637) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 27% of the time (311/1,134) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are 21-120 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Diamondbacks are 135-34 (.794) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Diamondbacks are just 151-12 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 55-87 (.387) after a win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Nationals are just 136-162 (.456) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Nationals are just 46-85 (.351) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .350 (3,243 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks are batting .500 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
The Diamondbacks are batting .280 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .949 (2,251 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters have put 50% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Nationals are batting .389 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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