- The Diamondbacks are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 47-44 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 2-6, 5.85 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 4.91 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 away games (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+10.80 Units / 71% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.95 Units / 47% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 42-45 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -7.92% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.4% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -7.12% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 47-44 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 4.28% ROI).
- 48-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.41% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 2.32% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -11.12% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi (ARI) | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .389 (37-for-95) against Slade Cecconi when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (70 Total Bases / 95 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .396 — 0 Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 36 opportunities (0%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (4/32) against Slade Cecconi on changeups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .341 (73-for-214) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of .929 (231 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .704 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .344 (31-for-90) against Randy Vasquez when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (39-for-102) against Randy Vasquez’s fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 9-36 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-9 (.922) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-71 (.336) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Diamondbacks are just 152-25 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 1-105 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are just 11-21 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Padres are just 4-166 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 31-106 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 67% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
27% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .282 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks are batting .278 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .324 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 935 strikeouts in 4,637 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .387 (412 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,122 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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