- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 43-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-44 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 3-6, 4.26 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-7, 3.57 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -120 | +100 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 +100 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 42-46 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -8.72% ROI).
- 43-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -5.57% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.36% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -8.28% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-44 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 5.08% ROI).
- 49-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.55% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -12.16% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -185 | 3.5 +140 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (307/426) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .181 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 90th Percentile and .299 vs left-handed batters this season (third worst among qualified SPs)– fifth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (59-for-197) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (15-for-51) against Brandon Pfaadt’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .210 — 13th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed a just .277 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .467 vs left-handed batters this season (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 19th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of just .146 (15 Total Bases / 103 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of just .529 (187 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 92nd Percentile.
Matt Waldron has thrown off-speed pitches 62% of the time (242/393) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 152-25 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-71 (.336) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-9 (.922) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-36 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 1-105 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 31-106 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 4-166 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 74% of their games against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,035 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 67% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .968 (252 PA’s) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 935 strikeouts in 4,644 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .323 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Padres hitters have just 46 strikeouts in 334 PA’s (14%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,151 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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