- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Phillies TV Channel: DBTV | NSPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 17-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 17-16 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez 1-3, 6.07 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -180 | O 9 -118 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -102 | -150 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+17.00 Units / 340% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 39% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+4.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 16-17 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -5.19% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -4.09% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 1.38% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -10.59% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 17-16 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -2.88% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.76% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -13.34% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 4.14% ROI
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (28 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — first Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (32 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .315 (17-for-54) against Eduardo Rodriguez’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — third Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of just 15% (6 SO in 40 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (653/1,235) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (45/73) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 130 of Ranger Suarez’s 303 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 43%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 52% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (288/553) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 162-13 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 3-13 (.188) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 175-45 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Phillies are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 36-28 (.562) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
The Phillies are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (3,694 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.79 runs per game (349/195) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies are batting .289 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .324 (9,473 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
More MLB Reading:
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