- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Yankees Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Yankees TV Channel: YES | DBTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-120) on Thursday, April 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 3-2 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 1-0, 1.69 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 0-0, 13.51 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -180 | O 10 -115 | +100 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | U 10 -105 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+14.80 Units / 247% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+31.50 Units / 630% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.95 Units / 124% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 106 games (+32.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 105 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 47 away games (+16.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 away games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 away games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 119 games (+19.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 142 games (+12.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+6.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games (+2.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 4-2 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 36.84% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 25.52% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 13.08% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -20.15% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 28.83% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 7.86% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 15.74% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -24.11% ROI
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -118 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Carlos Carrasco (NYY) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 23 PAs) this season — tied for lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 23 PAs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (12/23) this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 48% (12/25) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .830 (39 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .527 (119 Total Bases / 226 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .368 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .629 (198 Total Bases / 315 ABs) on fastballs since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .436 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .522 (411 Total Bases / 788 ABs) since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .410 — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Diamondbacks are just 151-12 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks were 67-15 (.807) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks are 135-34 (.794) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Yankees are 82-23 (.781) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Diamondbacks (26th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 50-31 (.617) on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .414 (129 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
The Diamondbacks are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .350 (3,243 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 233 walks in 1,890 PA’s (12%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .800 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.227 (82 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (775.0 IP) at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 536.1 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 473.2
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have walked 22 of 194 batters (11%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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