- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Giants / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | NSBA
The San Francisco Giants (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Giants are 24-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 23-17 ATS.
Giants vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Giants starting pitcher: Landen Roupp 2-3, 4.94 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 3-2, 2.16 ERA
Giants vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Giants vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.50 Units / 139% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Koss has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+18.00 Units / 180% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+17.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+2.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+9.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Giants are 19-21 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -2.62% ROI).
- 24-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 8.76% ROI
- 22-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 7.94% ROI
- 17-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.55 Units / -16.95% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 23-17 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 15.24% ROI).
- 20-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 13-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -30.4% ROI
- 24-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 22.4% ROI
Twins vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Landen Roupp (SF) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 37% (175/470) against Landen Roupp in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Landen Roupp has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (655/1,515) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (9/49) against Landen Roupp vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Landen Roupp has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (154/334) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total CB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (150/442) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a first pitch chase rate of 24% (82/335) against Pablo Lopez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez struck out 28% (111/392) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 84th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 23% (169/722) against Pablo Lopez since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Giants are 10-5 (.667) after a loss this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Giants are 3-13 (.188) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Giants are 151-5 (.968) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Giants are 16-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .826.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Twins are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Twins are just 0-11 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants batted just .151 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Giants hitters are slugging just .142 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Giants are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Giants hitters had an OPS of just .683 (1,790 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are averaging 4.19 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Twins are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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