- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Astros Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Astros TV Channel: BSGL | SCHN | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-130) on Thursday, May 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Guardians are 20-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 10-20 ATS.
Guardians vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 2.25 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 0-3, 10.98 ERA
Guardians vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -130 |
Guardians vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+23.70 Units / 296% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 81% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 29 games (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+17.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+14.80 Units / 123% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 133 games (+13.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+7.21 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 21-9 against the Run Line (+12.95 Units / 33.42% ROI).
- 20-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.52 Units / 26.95% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 8.62% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -17% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 10-20 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -27.75% ROI).
- 10-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.05 Units / -38.82% ROI
- 9-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -35.33% ROI
- 19-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 27.01% ROI
Astros vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Astros vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (35 Total Bases / 49 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — second Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (35 Total Bases / 49 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .380 — second Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of 1.066 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .649 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (8-for-21) against Logan Allen’s elevated fastball this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .206 — fifth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has limited playing time.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 35-121 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 24-128 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 19-64 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 99-25 (.798) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Astros are 43-27 (.614) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 118-86 (.578) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .217 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 45% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,492 strikeouts in 13,416 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 704 strikeouts in 3,994 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .281 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Astros hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,820/13,471 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .181 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.1 MPH (710 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have walked 29 of 267 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .318 against Astros pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Astros vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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