- The Blue Jays are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | GDTV
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-145) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Guardians are 18-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 20-12 ATS.
Guardians vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 2-2, 5.15 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 2-3, 4.55 ERA
Guardians vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +120 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +154 | U 8 -105 | -145 |
Guardians vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+24.50 Units / 350% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Addison Barger has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Addison Barger has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+10.20 Units / 146% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.07 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+2.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 16-16 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -8.12% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 12.3% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -3.67% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 20-12 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 11.42% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.55 Units / -27.47% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.82 Units / 19.11% ROI
Blue Jays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of .444 (63 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a BABIP of .474 against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .290 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (13-for-34) against Gavin Williams’ elevated fastball this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .223 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .165 (14 GB hits out of 85 GBs) against Gavin Williams in 2023 — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .124 (52-for-420) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 95th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman located his fastball up for a strike 75% (358/478) of the time in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman allowed a slugging percentage of just .169 (71 Total Bases / 420 ABs) with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 95th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 76% (786/1,041) of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Guardians are 97-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 86-3 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians are 92-2 (.979) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Blue Jays are just 9-2 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays were just 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Blue Jays were just 12-34 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .180 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .281 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Blue Jays are batting just .297 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .296 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 against Blue Jays pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Batters facing the Blue Jays pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Batters facing the Blue Jays pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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