- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Braves TV Channel: BSGL | BSSO
The Cleveland Guardians (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Saturday, April 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Guardians are 18-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 13-11 ATS.
Guardians vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 2-0, 4.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 2-0, 4.84 ERA
Guardians vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 +100 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -120 | -185 |
Guardians vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+20.00 Units / 500% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.70 Units / 95% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 away games (+9.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+13.20 Units / 264% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+13.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 135 games (+15.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 17-9 against the Run Line (+8.95 Units / 26.96% ROI).
- 18-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.52 Units / 27.18% ROI
- 15-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 18.18% ROI
- 9-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -26.22% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 13-11 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 7.72% ROI).
- 18-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 15.38% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -3.97% ROI
Braves vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Braves vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Braves vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .409 (9-for-22) against Tanner Bibee’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .211 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (18/75) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has walked 6 of 29 batters (21%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee since the 2022 season is 383.2 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 398.4
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (291/801) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,386/3,208) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (249/736) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 58 of 581 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Guardians are 24-128 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 19-64 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 11-139 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Braves are 49-44 (.527) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 34-51 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,457 strikeouts in 13,250 PA’s (18%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,723 strikeouts in 9,480 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .509 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Braves are batting .318 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters are slugging .761 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .179 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.6 MPH this season (547 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.6 MPH (547 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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