- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Braves TV Channel: BSGL | BSSO
The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Sunday, April 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Guardians are 19-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 13-12 ATS.
Guardians vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 0-1, 2.38 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 1-0, 0.00 ERA
Guardians vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | O 9 -105 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -115 | -175 |
Guardians vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+19.00 Units / 380% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+12.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.70 Units / 95% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+7.80 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+14.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+12.20 Units / 203% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 135 games (+15.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 18-9 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 28.76% ROI).
- 19-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.97 Units / 30.45% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 13.61% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -21.92% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 13-12 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 3.99% ROI).
- 18-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 11.42% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.18% ROI
Braves vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Braves vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (7/27) against Ben Lively this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (7/27) against Ben Lively — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (17/65) against Ben Lively on elevated fastballs since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (25/72) against Ben Lively on elevated fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (56/396) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (148/254) against Bryce Elder since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (188/357) of left-handed hitters since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (71/499) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Guardians are 35-121 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 24-128 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Guardians are 11-139 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 34-51 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 178-36 (.832) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves are 49-44 (.527) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put 45% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,730 strikeouts in 9,514 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,466 strikeouts in 13,293 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 119 strikeouts in 888 PA’s (13%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .591 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Braves hitters are slugging .471 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .491 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .840 (7,233 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .175 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Braves pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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