- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
- Guardians vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Nationals TV Channel: GDTV | MAS2
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Guardians are 21-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 19-18 ATS.
Guardians vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 1-2, 4.02 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mike Soroka 0-1, 7.21 ERA
Guardians vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -102 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -170 | U 9 -118 | -105 |
Guardians vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+22.00 Units / 220% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+17.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.95 Units / 99% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.85 Units / 137% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.95 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+6.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+4.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 18-18 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -7.09% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 16.09% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 7.23% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -14.32% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 19-18 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -1.52% ROI).
- 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 1.48% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -9.52% ROI
Nationals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka (WAS) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of .574 (182 Total Bases / 317 ABs) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .400 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .269 (18-for-67) against Logan Allen with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .171 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 12% (8/68) versus Logan Allen with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of .551 (211 Total Bases / 383 ABs) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Soroka walked 13% of batters in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Mike Soroka walked 16% of left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (376/1,005) against Mike Soroka in non-two strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Mike Soroka has walked 12% of batters since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians are 88-3 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 94-2 (.979) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are 2-19 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Nationals are just 82-98 (.456) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 159-202 (.440) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Guardians are batting just .295 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .961 (2,488 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.081.
Nationals hitters had an OPS of just .901 (1,155 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.100.
Nationals hitters had 298 extra-base hits out of 950 total hits (just 31%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have allowed 2.35 runs per game (87/37) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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