- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Padres TV Channel: GDTV | PDTV
The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Monday, March 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Guardians are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 3-1 ATS.
Guardians vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Kyle Hart 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 10 away games (+10.30 Units / 82% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+9.85 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+13.20 Units / 147% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 166 games (+7.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+3.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 137 games (+5.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 3-0 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 53.57% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 46.03% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 31.25% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -35.29% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 51.49% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 92.47% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -26.14% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 16.85% ROI
Padres vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hart (SD) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz had a strike rate of just 61% (238/391) when he’s behind in the count in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz walked 12 of 80 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OBP of .428 (152 PA’s) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hart has limited playing time.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians were 33-12 (.733) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Guardians were 66-9 (.880) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres were 19-47 (.288) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 129-21 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 64% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 291 strikeouts in 1,666 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 814 strikeouts in 4,575 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .209 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 32% against Guardians pitchers over the last 14 days of the regular season (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers had an ERA of 3.73 (1441.0 IP) in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
More MLB Reading:
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