- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Phillies TV Channel: BSGL | NSPA
The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Guardians are 61-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 53-49 ATS.
Guardians vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 8-6, 3.58 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 7-5, 2.93 ERA
Guardians vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -115 | +145 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -105 | -175 |
Guardians vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 40 games (+50.50 Units / 126% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 away games (+16.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+9.95 Units / 166% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 18 games (+21.30 Units / 118% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+17.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 48 games (+16.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 102 games (+12.17 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 102 games (+9.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+5.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games (+21.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 42 games at home (+19.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 43 games at home (+13.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 84 games (+12.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 85 games (+10.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-53 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.81% ROI).
- 61-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.17 Units / 9.1% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.53% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -6.04% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 53-49 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 2.87% ROI).
- 64-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 3.81% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -9.44% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
Phillies vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Phillies vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to June 22nd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (92 Total Bases / 152 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .430 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP– 89th Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (17/109) against Ben Lively on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (192/328) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (79/131) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has located his fastballs down 51% of the time (411/800) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (144/226) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 18-16 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 49-1 (.980) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Guardians are 14-5 (.737) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Guardians are 10-16 (.385) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 55-7 (.887) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Phillies are 11-93 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,091 strikeouts in 11,423 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 69% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 88% of their games (65.7% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.75 runs per game (77/102) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.46 (912.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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