- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Phillies TV Channel: BSGL | NSPA
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Guardians are 62-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 53-50 ATS.
Guardians vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 3-8, 5.37 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 2-0, 2.81 ERA
Guardians vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -105 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -145 |
Guardians vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 41 games (+49.50 Units / 121% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+14.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 19 games (+20.30 Units / 107% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+16.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+15.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 103 games (+13.77 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 away games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 89 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+19.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 43 games at home (+17.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 44 games at home (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 85 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 50-53 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 62-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.77 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 49-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 48-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.1% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 53-50 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 64-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 2.68% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -10.32% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.11% ROI
Phillies vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Phillies vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips (PHI) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .876 (85 Total Bases / 97 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .432 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .409 (74-for-181) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .790 (143 Total Bases / 181 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .614 (329 Total Bases / 536 ABs) on fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .436 — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .118 (2-for-17) against Tyler Phillips in his last two starts — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 90th Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OBP of just .136 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes in his last two starts — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 — 91st Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OBP of just .167 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 4th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .289 — 93rd Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has walked 1 of 45 batters (2%) over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 18-16 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 45-1 (.978) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Guardians are 37-148 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are just 2-35 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 55-7 (.887) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Phillies are 37-15 (.712) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Guardians have allowed 0.75 runs per game (77/102) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 2 of 88 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.46 (912.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Phillies pitchers have walked 276 of 3,773 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
Bet now on Guardians vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
