Guardians vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 15

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
  • The Rangers are -160 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Guardians vs Rangers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Guardians / Rangers TV Channel: BSGL | BSSW

The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-160) on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

This season, the Guardians are 27-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 18-26 ATS.

Guardians vs Rangers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-3, 5.36 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jon Gray 1-1, 2.37 ERA

Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -150O 8.5 +100+135
Rangers -1.5 +125U 8.5 -120-160

Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 32 games (+30.20 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+13.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 away games (+10.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.00 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 games (+13.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+12.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Davis Wendzel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.70 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.82 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 away games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 26-17 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 19.91% ROI).

  • 27-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.82 Units / 15.56% ROI
  • 22-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 2.42% ROI
  • 19-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -10.82% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 18-26 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -19.12% ROI).

  • 22-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -9.89% ROI
  • 18-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -17.42% ROI
  • 24-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 8.9% ROI

Rangers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 +220 0.5 -275
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Marcus Semien (TEX) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650

Rangers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Will Brennan (CLE) 0.5 -275 0.5 +210
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Tyler Freeman (CLE) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Nate Lowe (TEX) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Jonah Heim (TEX) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Rangers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 -110 0.5 -120
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Marcus Semien (TEX) 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Rangers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) 3.5 -140 3.5 +105
Jon Gray (TEX) 5.5 +130 5.5 -165

Opponents are hitting .385 (57-for-148) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.020 (153 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .742 — second Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .852 (156 Total Bases / 183 ABs) when behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .595 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of .851 (178 PA’s) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — sixth Percentile.

Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 42% (81/192) against Jon Gray this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Jon Gray has thrown his slider 54% of the time (806/1,486) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 28% (24/85) against Jon Gray this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (68/199) against Jon Gray this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Guardians are 36-127 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.

The Guardians are 9-84 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Guardians are 25-134 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Guardians are 30-27 (.526) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rangers are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rangers are 36-20 (.643) after a home win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Rangers are just 153-24 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

The Rangers are just 20-26 (.435) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,810 strikeouts in 9,961 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians are batting just .245 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of .343 (3,871 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .322.

Rangers hitters are slugging .478 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,122 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .322.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .822 (3,871 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Guardians have allowed 0.72 runs per game (31/43) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 166 of 1,650 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 7.02 (59.0 IP) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Rangers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
  • Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Lat, 15-Day IL
  • Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers): Oblique, 10-Day IL
  • Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
  • Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
  • Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.