- The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Rays TV Channel: ATV+
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Guardians are 57-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 44-49 ATS.
Guardians vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 3-6, 5.25 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 3-4, 3.21 ERA
Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -115 | +120 |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -105 | -145 |
Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 56 of their last 92 games (+16.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+14.92 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+8.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 90 games (+23.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 47-45 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 5.72% ROI).
- 57-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.92 Units / 12.28% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 3.83% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -12.47% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 44-49 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -7.01% ROI).
- 46-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -8.91% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -4.11% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.1% ROI
Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .463 (99-for-214) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .751 (130 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of .938 (499 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .708 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .416 (37-for-89) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 0 Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has struck out 33% (121/365) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (8 Total Bases / 42 ABs) over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .390 — 97th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has struck out 39% (9/23) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (23/108) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 18-13 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Guardians are 9-103 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are 37-20 (.649) after a home loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Guardians are 18-8 (.692) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are just 13-26 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Rays are 30-54 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 96-40 (.706) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,034 strikeouts in 11,176 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .204 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.75 runs per game (69/92) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,088 of 15,465 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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