- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Guardians / Rays TV Channel: BSGL | BSUN | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Sunday, July 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Guardians are 58-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 45-50 ATS.
Guardians vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 8-4, 3.61 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 5-5, 4.21 ERA
Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 +100 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -120 | -125 |
Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 94 games (+16.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 94 games (+14.92 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 94 games (+8.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 away games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 92 games (+23.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 48-46 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.41% ROI).
- 58-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.92 Units / 12.07% ROI
- 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.68% ROI
- 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -10.25% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 45-50 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -7.09% ROI).
- 47-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -8.8% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -6.08% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -2.1% ROI
Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .620 (88 Total Bases / 142 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .682 (15 Total Bases / 22 ABs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .385 — fourth Percentile.
Ben Lively has not walked any of the 29 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .171 (13 GB hits out of 76 GBs) against Ben Lively with runners on base since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .150 (21-for-140) against Ryan Pepiot’s fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .171 (6-for-35) against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (95/307) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to June 21st — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 13.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 18-13 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Guardians are 12-3 (.800) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Guardians are 47-1 (.979) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Guardians are 37-143 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are just 20-41 (.328) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Rays are 23-12 (.657) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 23-12 (.657) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 11-97 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,049 strikeouts in 11,242 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Guardians hitters have just 2,953 strikeouts in 15,761 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays are batting .267 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Rays hitters have 185 strikeouts in 570 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have 212 strikeouts in 853 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Guardians have allowed 0.73 runs per game (69/94) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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