- The Guardians are -115 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: FS1 | BSGL | BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Thursday, June 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 51-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 46-36 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 7-3, 3.05 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-6, 4.09 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 +100 | -115 |
| Royals | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -120 | -105 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 78 games (+19.97 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+19.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+17.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+11.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.39 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games at home (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 45-33 against the Run Line (+17.8 Units / 18.76% ROI).
- 51-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.97 Units / 19.82% ROI
- 37-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -1.9% ROI
- 35-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -6.18% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 46-36 against the Run Line (+2.54 Units / 2.26% ROI).
- 44-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 6.49% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -16.15% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 7.29% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Daniel Schneemann (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .193 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — seventh best among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP– 93rd Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 9% (27/294) against Ben Lively since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (44/254) against Ben Lively this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (135/737) against Ben Lively in non-two strike counts since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (503/1,034) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (790/1,632) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .542 (333 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .706 — 97th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 50% of the time (167/336) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 9-10 (.474) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are 15-11 (.577) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
The Guardians are 12-9 (.571) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Guardians are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 18-95 (.159) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 15-33 (.312) after a road win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Royals are just 34-38 (.472) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .620.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians are batting .317 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .372 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (4,432 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Royals hitters have just 122 strikeouts in 676 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Guardians have allowed 0.68 runs per game (53/78) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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