- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: BSGL | BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 51-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 47-36 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 3-4, 4.65 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 5-5, 4.41 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 +100 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | U 9.5 -120 | +105 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games (+18.87 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 50 of their last 79 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+16.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.39 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 41 games at home (+5.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 45-34 against the Run Line (+16.8 Units / 17.52% ROI).
- 51-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.87 Units / 18.52% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -3.13% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -4.94% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 47-36 against the Run Line (+3.54 Units / 3.1% ROI).
- 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 7.43% ROI
- 34-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -17.17% ROI
- 45-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 8.31% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nick Loftin (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has walked 27 of 164 right-handed batters (17%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 24 of 135 batters (18%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of just 59% (377/639) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 31 of 209 batters (15%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (200 Total Bases / 273 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .574 — first Percentile.
Alec Marsh has walked 34 of 267 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (68 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.250 (20 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when behind in the count this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .621 — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 15-11 (.577) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Guardians are 37-136 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Guardians are 9-10 (.474) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Guardians are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 18-95 (.159) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 15-33 (.312) after a road win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,966 strikeouts in 10,821 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,474 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Royals have won just 49% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Guardians have allowed 0.67 runs per game (53/79) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Royals pitchers this month (24 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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