- The Royals are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: BSGL | BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-130) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 52-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 48-37 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 5.47 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 10-2, 2.28 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -130 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 81 games (+18.77 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 81 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+16.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.64 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 games at home (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 46-35 against the Run Line (+17.3 Units / 17.67% ROI).
- 52-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.77 Units / 18.02% ROI
- 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.83% ROI
- 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -7.41% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 48-37 against the Run Line (+2.79 Units / 2.37% ROI).
- 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 7.27% ROI
- 36-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.5 Units / -14.62% ROI
- 45-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 5.62% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Loftin (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (125 Total Bases / 165 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .550 — 0 Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .584 (115 Total Bases / 197 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 0 Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .953 (222 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .685 — first Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .669 (81 Total Bases / 121 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown breaking pitches 48% of the time (502/1,045) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
9 of Seth Lugo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2022 season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .258 (51-for-198) against Seth Lugo in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 15-12 (.556) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Guardians are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Guardians are 17-11 (.607) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Guardians are 9-11 (.450) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Royals are just 19-95 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 12-65 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.
The Royals are just 15-54 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,978 strikeouts in 10,862 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,861 strikeouts in 15,283 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (4,432 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.69 runs per game (56/81) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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