- The Guardians are +100 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: GDTV | FDKC
The Cleveland Guardians (+100) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-120) on Saturday, March 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 0-0 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Royals | +1.5 -210 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Williams has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.25 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Lugo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 94% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 166 games (+7.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+3.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 164 games (+12.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 164 games (+5.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Carlos Santana (Cle) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .165 (14 GB hits out of 85 GBs) against Gavin Williams in 2023 — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
20 of Gavin Williams’ 73 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .111 (3 GB hits out of 27 GBs) against Gavin Williams with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 28 of 269 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — tied for 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo walked 13 of 288 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 21% (141/680) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Seth Lugo walked 16 of 393 right-handed batters (4%) in the 2024 season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 87th Percentile.
Seth Lugo threw his curveball 26% of the time (129/492) when behind in the count in 2023 — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Guardians were 25-31 (.446) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Royals are just 21-66 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .374.
The Royals are just 38-18 (.679) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Royals are just 14-78 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .000 (8 PA’s) against RHP this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .000 (8 PA’s) against RHP this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 300 strikeouts in 1,505 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (1,505 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .690 (3,031 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .209 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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