- The Tigers are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Tigers TV Channel: BSGL | BSDT
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-130) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Guardians are 57-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 44-49 ATS.
Guardians vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Spencer Howard 1-1, 5.63 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 5-5, 3.28 ERA
Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8 +100 | +110 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -120 | -130 |
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games at home (+26.20 Units / 175% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 56 of their last 91 games (+17.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 91 games (+15.92 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 91 games (+9.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 91 games (+8.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games at home (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 65% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 47-44 against the Run Line (+8.3 Units / 7.61% ROI).
- 57-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.92 Units / 13.21% ROI
- 46-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.88% ROI
- 39-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -11.41% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 44-49 against the Run Line (-10.95 Units / -8.73% ROI).
- 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -7.14% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 5.73% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -14.99% ROI
Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Spencer Howard (SF) | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Howard has allowed a slugging percentage of .495 (50 Total Bases / 101 ABs) this season — 4th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .366 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .327 (33-for-101) against Spencer Howard this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Spencer Howard has allowed an OPS of .884 (114 PA’s) this season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .671 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (16-for-47) against Spencer Howard’s non-fastballs this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .207 — first Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .264 (349 PAs) this season — tied for 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP– 92nd Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .370 (649 PAs) last season — tied for 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– sixth Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strikeout rate of 33% (115 SO in 349 PAs) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 14 of 349 batters (4%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown breaking pitches 52% of the time (461/886) when behind in the count since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 18-13 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Guardians are 10-13 (.435) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are 37-141 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 10-20 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 25-108 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Tigers are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Tigers are just 29-8 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Tigers are 20-3 (.870) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,931 strikeouts in 15,655 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (11,738 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .220 on pitches 95 mph or greater since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (69/91) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Tigers have won just 14% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 247 of 3,446 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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