- The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: BSGL | BSNX
The Cleveland Guardians (+140) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 3-3 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 0-0, 5.40 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 0-0, 1.69 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -120 | +140 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 8 +100 | -165 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 22 away games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 46.86% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 46.56% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 31.25% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -41.81% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 3-3 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 20.83% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -11.49% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -35.97% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 31.75% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kirilloff | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Freeman | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kwan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carrasco | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -190 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .766 (98 Total Bases / 128 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .414 (53-for-128) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .426 (20-for-47) against Carlos Carrasco on low fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .274 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .843 (43 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on low fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (144/435) against Joe Ryan in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (723/1,284) against Joe Ryan since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 71% (884/1,249) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 69% (1,849/2,683) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 34-115 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Twins were 33-11 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins are 18-53 (.254) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are 33-11 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .358 against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,627 strikeouts in 9,019 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Twins are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters are slugging .699 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 461 of 6,245 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 102 of 1,508 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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