After signing the largest contract in professional sports history, Juan Soto has joined the New York Mets.
Soto will play for his fourth different team in as many years in 2025, so he’s familiar with a change of scenery. But how will playing 81 home games in Citi Field and returning to the National League impact his offensive production?
A new MLB odds market helps answer that question. Soto is the only player with a home run over/under total for the 2025 season.
Juan Soto’s Home Run Over/Under for 2025
- Over 33.5 home runs (-110)
- Under 33.5 home runs (-110)
For his debut season with the Mets, Soto opens with a home run over/under of 33.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. The over and under are listed at standard -110 odds, meaning a $11 wager provides a $10 payout.
This is a number that Soto has cleared in back-to-back seasons and three of his last five full seasons since debuting in 2018. He hit a career-best 41 homers in his lone season with the New York Yankees in 2024.
Soto has clubbed 201 home runs in his career, tied with Albert Pujols for the sixth-most in MLB history by a player before turning 26.
Juan Soto’s Home Run Totals:
| Year | Team | Games | Home runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NYY | 157 | 41 |
| 2023 | SDP | 162 | 35 |
| 2022 | WSN/SDP | 153 | 27 |
| 2021 | WSN | 151 | 29 |
| 2020 | WSN | 47 | 13 |
| 2019 | WSN | 150 | 34 |
| 2018 | WSN | 116 | 22 |
Juan Soto’s Home Run Projection for 2025
According to the initial ZiPS projection at FanGraphs, Soto is expected to hit 33 home runs for the Mets in 2025. That would be eight fewer homers than he hit with the Yankees.
The lower home run projection is primarily due to the ballpark change.
According to Baseball Savant, Citi Field ranks 27th in Park Factor over the last three years, including 28th for left-handed hitters. More specifically, the Mets rank 21st in home runs for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.
For comparison, the Yankees are third in home run park factor for lefties over that same span due to their short porch in right field. They rank 18th overall in park factor.
Still, Soto’s experience should prove that his offensive production can translate anywhere.
The San Diego Padres’ Petco Park ranks 29th in overall park factor and 20th in home runs for lefties over the past three seasons. The Washington Nationals’ ballpark rank sixth and 15th, respectively.
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