- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-135) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (+115) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 28-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 26-23 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers 0-1, 7.57 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -110 | -135 |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -110 | +115 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Mariners vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+16.60 Units / 237% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+24.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+16.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 61% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+9.42 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.60 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 25-23 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 3.65% ROI).
- 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 6.01% ROI
- 26-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 7.42% ROI
- 20-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.92 Units / -16.79% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 26-23 against the Run Line (+4.77 Units / 7.64% ROI).
- 25-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -6.84% ROI
- 20-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -17.89% ROI
- 27-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 8.94% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| George Kirby (SEA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 2% of right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby had a strike rate of 71% (2,002/2,825) in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 2% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby’s K:BB ratio was 9.1 (172/19) in 2023 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance McCullers has allowed an OBP of .538 (26 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .296 — first Percentile.
Lance McCullers has walked 16% of batters this month (3 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Lance McCullers has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of batters he faced (15/45 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 19% — second Percentile.
Lance McCullers has a strike rate of just 59% (121/206) this month (3 games) — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 3-17 (.150) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Mariners are 20-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 95-1 (.990) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mariners were just 66-16 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-78 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were 50-37 (.575) after a win in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .214 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,999/14,177 PA’s) since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .263 (1,877 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Mariners vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
