- The Mariners are +105 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (+105) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 28-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 27-23 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 1-2, 6.34 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 3-2, 4.55 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -102 | +105 |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -118 | -125 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+15.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.40 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+23.00 Units / 230% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+18.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 74% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 away games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+10.42 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 25-24 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 1.96% ROI).
- 28-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 27-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 9.14% ROI
- 20-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.02 Units / -18.48% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 27-23 against the Run Line (+5.77 Units / 9.02% ROI).
- 26-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 21-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 27-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 6.78% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rowdy Tellez (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock (SEA) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
| Ryan Gusto (HOU) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Emerson Hancock has spotted his fastball inside for a strike 82% (95/116) of the time this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (40/127) against Emerson Hancock in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (49/147) against Emerson Hancock since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .464 (13-for-28) against Emerson Hancock on low fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .272 — sixth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Gusto has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (3 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .372 — 96th Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has thrown fastballs up 64% of the time (194/304) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
84% of Ryan Gusto’s fastball strikeouts are elevatedthis season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (44/157) against Ryan Gusto on fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 95th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Mariners are 20-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners are 24-2 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 17-7 (.708) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Astros are 97-72 (.574) after a loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .214 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .264 (1,885 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .276 (5,788 PA’s) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
More MLB Reading:
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