- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-105) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-115) on Friday, May 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 17-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 11-20 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 3-2, 3.59 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 3-0, 1.67 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -110 | -105 |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -110 | -115 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+13.20 Units / 165% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 away games (+9.35 Units / 96% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+19.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games at home (+13.80 Units / 106% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+7.21 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 15-16 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.47% ROI
- 6-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.2 Units / -58.36% ROI
- 23-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.3 Units / 49.1% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 11-20 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -22.75% ROI).
- 11-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.05 Units / -35.2% ROI
- 10-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -31.2% ROI
- 19-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.95 Units / 22.98% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has struck out 61% (14/23) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 72% (380/530) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 1 of 54 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 12 of 333 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 9% (7/82) against Ronel Blanco this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 9% (7/82) against Ronel Blanco this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (19/46) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed a slugging percentage of just .207 (23 Total Bases / 111 ABs) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 153-6 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 46-6 (.885) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners are 54-39 (.581) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Mariners are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 99-25 (.798) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are just 19-75 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Astros are 13-11 (.542) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Astros are 29-22 (.569) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .176 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .395 (649 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 709 strikeouts in 4,019 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Astros hitters have just 388 strikeouts in 2,169 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,826/13,510 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 74 of 1,108 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 942 of 13,100 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have walked 131 of 1,206 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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