- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: FOX
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 17-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 12-20 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 2-0, 2.04 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 1-0, 2.65 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -105 | -145 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+12.20 Units / 136% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 away games (+10.35 Units / 96% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+18.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.80 Units / 91% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+7.21 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 15-17 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -9.03% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -4.04% ROI
- 6-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.25 Units / -59.65% ROI
- 24-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.3 Units / 50.36% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 12-20 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -17.49% ROI).
- 12-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -31.97% ROI
- 10-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -33.29% ROI
- 20-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.95 Units / 25.04% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has struck out 39% (28/72) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 38% (34/90) against Logan Gilbert this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .213 (150 PA’s) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Logan Gilbert on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (784/1,655) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (493/795) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (29/44) against Framber Valdez this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (390/830) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 88-14 (.863) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Mariners are 48-8 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Mariners are 153-6 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 85-5 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 99-25 (.798) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 148-21 (.876) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are just 19-75 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Astros are 43-27 (.614) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Mariners hitters have 253 strikeouts in 865 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .408 (670 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 709 strikeouts in 4,024 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .546 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .372.
Astros hitters have just 61 strikeouts in 373 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 388 strikeouts in 2,174 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 947 of 13,136 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .224 (286 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Mariners pitchers have walked 13 of 286 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 110 of 1,741 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 134 of 1,241 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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