- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 18-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 12-21 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 3-2, 2.06 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 0-4, 10.08 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +115 |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -135 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+16.80 Units / 168% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+17.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 79% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+7.21 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 16-17 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -6.41% ROI).
- 18-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 6-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.25 Units / -60.8% ROI
- 25-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.3 Units / 51.48% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 12-21 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -19.68% ROI).
- 12-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -34.14% ROI
- 10-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -35.15% ROI
- 21-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.95 Units / 26.93% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Loperfido (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .104 (7-for-67) against Bryce Miller with two-strikes this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has a strikeout rate of 39% (21 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has a strikeout rate of 39% (21 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (6-for-48) against Bryce Miller when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 92nd Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has allowed an OPS of 1.429 (44 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .736 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .551 (27-for-49) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .366 (37-for-101) against Hunter Brown this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .622 (45 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 154-6 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 15-14 (.517) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Mariners are 89-14 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Mariners are 148-14 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 63-43 (.594) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Astros are 99-25 (.798) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 43-27 (.614) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 119-87 (.578) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have 338 strikeouts in 1,200 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have 256 strikeouts in 880 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 710 strikeouts in 4,028 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .460 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Astros hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Astros hitters have just 215 strikeouts in 1,270 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .220 (295 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 14 of 295 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 111 of 1,750 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 137 of 1,281 batters (11%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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