- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Brewers TV Channel: RTNW | MLBN | BSWI
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Friday, April 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Mariners are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 4-1 ATS.
Mariners vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 0-0, 1.29 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 1-0, 1.50 ERA
Mariners vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -115 | +100 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -120 |
Mariners vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.70 Units / 69% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 1-6 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -65.36% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -24.73% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -3.25% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -4.55% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 4-1 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 25.14% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 59.81% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -22.32% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 16.51% ROI
Brewers vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Contreras | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Dunn | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ortiz | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Turang | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gilbert | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Peralta | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +105 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .270 (767 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (20/26) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has a strike rate of 71% (65/91) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown his slider 44% of the time (236/537) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Freddy Peralta this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 97th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed an OBP of just .105 (19 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 97th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 42% (8 SO in 19 PAs) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a BABIP of .000 this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mariners are 141-6 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners are 52-36 (.591) after a road win since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Mariners are 148-3 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 34-85 (.286) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Brewers were 19-39 (.328) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Brewers are 33-21 (.611) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have a swing rate of just 52% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 59%.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .261 (245 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 53% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 59%.
Brewers hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 14 of 267 batters (5%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 101 of 1,519 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 435 of 6,273 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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