- The Mariners are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mariners vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mariners / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-165) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Saturday, May 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mariners are 27-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 30-19 ATS.
Mariners vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 3-2, 3.24 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 4-0, 2.40 ERA
Mariners vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -110 | -165 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -110 | +135 |
Mariners vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+14.20 Units / 142% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+29.90 Units / 214% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+13.85 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+11.60 Units / 83% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+2.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+1.05 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+8.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 25-27 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -9.06% ROI).
- 27-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 19-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -24.5% ROI
- 30-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.6 Units / 15.13% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 30-19 against the Run Line (+8.63 Units / 13.59% ROI).
- 22-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 11.84% ROI
- 20-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -15.79% ROI
- 26-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.78 Units / 6.97% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 34 opportunities (27%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .203 (72-for-355) against Logan Gilbert when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (75/209) against Logan Gilbert this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .245 (376 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (1,120/2,203) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 39% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (860/2,203) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 52% (628/1,216) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 52% (525/1,012) on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mariners are 160-6 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 98-2 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Mariners are 31-4 (.886) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Mariners are 79-45 (.637) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Nationals are just 23-43 (.348) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 69-114 (.377) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Nationals are just 148-225 (.397) since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .216 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Mariners hitters have 530 strikeouts in 1,888 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .186 on the road this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Nationals are batting just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .527 (385 PA’s) on the road this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .245 (458 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Mariners pitchers have walked 217 of 3,362 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (226.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 21 of 177 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Nationals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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