- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Padres TV Channel: ATV
The Seattle Mariners (+130) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Mariners are 23-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 26-16 ATS.
Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Evans 1-1, 6.61 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 2-0, 0.00 ERA
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 +100 | +130 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Leonardo Rivas has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+13.00 Units / 186% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Leonardo Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elias Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+20.40 Units / 204% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.30 Units / 71% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+13.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 21-21 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.57% ROI).
- 23-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -1.52% ROI
- 25-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 18.42% ROI
- 15-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.82 Units / -27.53% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-16 against the Run Line (+7.25 Units / 12.75% ROI).
- 27-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 14.09% ROI
- 19-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -10.26% ROI
- 22-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 1.16% ROI
Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Leody Taveras (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
| Logan Evans (SEA) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .385 (10-for-26) against Logan Evans this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .248 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .458 (11-for-24) against Logan Evans on the road this month (1 game) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (8-for-16) against Logan Evans when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .251 — first Percentile.
Logan Evans has allowed an OBP of .448 (29 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .305 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .316 (43-for-136) against Stephen Kolek since last season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 18% (28/155) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 7th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 3-16 (.158) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 45-9 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
The Mariners are 10-8 (.556) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Mariners are 89-16 (.848) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 4-10 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Padres are 3-12 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of .359 (767 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .263 (1,824 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (1661.0 IP) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
More MLB Reading:
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