- The Padres are -190 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Padres TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV | KFMB
The Seattle Mariners (+155) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Mariners are 24-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 26-17 ATS.
Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 1-2, 7.08 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-2, 3.07 ERA
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -118 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -102 | -190 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.35 Units / 84% ROI)
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Strikeouts Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Earned Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.50 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
Padres Best Bets Today:
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 22-21 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 2.41% ROI).
- 24-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 1.23% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.25 Units / 15.4% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.82 Units / -24.85% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-17 against the Run Line (+6.25 Units / 10.8% ROI).
- 27-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 10.8% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -12.58% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 3.21% ROI
Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Emerson Hancock (SEA) | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 34% (47/138) against Emerson Hancock since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has spotted his fastball inside for a strike 81% (83/102) of the time this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has allowed an OPS of 1.067 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .517 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .464 (13-for-28) against Emerson Hancock on low fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .277 — sixth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .242 (93 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .492 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .140 (93 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .242 (93 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .498 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .736 (356 Total Bases / 484 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .568 — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 3-16 (.158) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Mariners are 90-16 (.849) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Mariners are 139-22 (.863) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners were 10-56 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 4-11 (.267) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Padres are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Padres are 14-72 (.163) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .212 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .228 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .214 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (1670.0 IP) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 53% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
More MLB Reading:
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