- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Mariners / Padres TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Mariners are 25-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 26-18 ATS.
Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo 4-1, 2.84 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 4-1, 2.31 ERA
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -185 | O 7 +105 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -125 | -145 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+28.10 Units / 312% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+18.30 Units / 67% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+15.95 Units / 76% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+14.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Michael King has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+11.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 23-21 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 4.17% ROI).
- 25-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 3.97% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.2 Units / 12.88% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.82 Units / -22.21% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-18 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 8.92% ROI).
- 27-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 7.52% ROI
- 19-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -14.51% ROI
- 24-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 5.16% ROI
Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -118 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has not walked any of the 72 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has not walked any of the 72 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (13/48) against Bryan Woo in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .089 (56 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .280 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .139 (10-for-72) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an OPS of just .429 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .675 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (10-for-72) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.6 MPH in the 2024 season (439 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 3-16 (.158) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Mariners are 12-8 (.600) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Mariners are 90-16 (.849) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Mariners are 169-3 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 3-14 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Padres are 145-22 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Padres are 76-43 (.639) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mariners (21st best runs scored) today.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .212 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .214 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Mariners are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .262 (1,842 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
More MLB Reading:
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