- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mariners / Red Sox TV Channel: RTNW | NESN
The Seattle Mariners (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Mariners are 12-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 12-12 ATS.
Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 1-2, 3.54 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 9 -105 | -130 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+18.35 Units / 204% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+14.45 Units / 93% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryce Miller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+10.50 Units / 210% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 12-10 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 12.32% ROI).
- 12-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.18% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -4.73% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -4.14% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 12-12 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -2.22% ROI).
- 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -7.2% ROI
- 9-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -23.38% ROI
- 14-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 16.04% ROI
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ben Williamson (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has walked 22% of left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .204 (149-for-730) against Bryce Miller since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OPS of just .538 (373 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .658 — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OBP of just .233 (279 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (97/175) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Brayan Bello allowed an OBP of .352 (270 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — sixth Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 61% (480/788) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .033.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners were 33-7 (.825) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Mariners are 47-6 (.887) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are just 5-66 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox are just 0-8 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are 54-11 (.831) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .213 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Mariners are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Mariners are batting just .187 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 28% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters are averaging 4.31 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .256 (1,643 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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